Wednesday 9 November 2016

Trumping Brexit?

This morning waking up to news on the alarm clock radio I (I imagine not alone) had a sense of deja vu with last June's Brexit result. The two events are linked by much more than the feeling of surprise for such a large number of people voting (apparently, personally) irrationally against overwhelming evidence.

I was not eligible to vote in either consultation, and yet in both cases will be part of the history that unfolds from here. Of course in the case of American elections this circumstance is shared with the rest of the world's population. But particularly as a European this hurts because if we abandoned our tribalism (sorry, I mean our Nations in which we are brainwashed to patriotically recognise ourselves) we might actually have something constructive to say. We hand over the role of "leader of the free world" by a potent combo of voluntary and unconscious actions. We then get what someone else thinks best.

In this case the election seems to me to have been won by Trump (this is probably the strongest link with Brexit) because of the disenchantment of sections of working and middle class who, despite the best job market conditions one could imagine, have actually been losing quality of life, not on an absolute scale but certainly relative to the top earners and to the "models" that society puts before us. I'm 42 (the answer to everything), and I felt Obama was the best USA president of my lifetime... yet as many have written there are many things that have not been solved or have even gone worse in the last decade. One is wealth distribution and lack of equality in opportunities across society. Will Trump manage to do something here? There's the potential for an economic disaster, but perhaps he will find a way to actually address this problem.   It's a problem that will surface again in the forthcoming votes in Italy, France and Germany... let's see if the "old world" is in sync with UK/USA or if the "social contract" there has (hopefully) held up better.  More of the same, even with good intentions, and even when things go well (e.g. low unemployment) is not sorting this problem out.

Let me be clear that I am pessimistic and sad, and I could not put my feelings better than Katharine Viner, Editor in Chief of the Guardian: "It was a terrible night for women, for Muslims, for Hispanic Americans, for people who believe climate change is a real and present danger, for people who believe women have a right to abortion, for men and women who object to sexual harassment of the most brutal and obvious kind, for disabled people, for black people, for Jewish people, for gay people, for progressives, for liberals, for people who believe Barack Obama was born in the USA, for a free and independent media working in the public interest", concluding that we need to hold up: "Progressive ideas are good ideas".

However, contrary to Brexit (where I simply cannot see any glimmer or anything good that can come out), I could imagine some positive things following Trump's election: (1) His "America Great/Strong again" might well have the effect of reducing Russia's aggressiveness not through specific threats but simply because I can imagine then several "alpha male" characters all claiming to stand up to each other is a stable scenario; this is a terrible view of how some equilibrium can be maintained, but better than war. It is harder, and takes consensus, to disarm, etc. and maybe the conjuncture of leaders is not the right one, so maybe this is the best we can hope for. (2) He might invest on infrastructure,  things like trains - this is something that would boost the right sectors of society, and would be good. (3) The middle eastern "knot", like all knots, does not necessarily disentangle if you keep pulling the same strings; it could be that a shift of approach will move things in a better direction (hard to see how things could be worse, there is one war happening in Siria, another in Yemen, unsolved tensions in Israel, and increasingly strong friction between Iran and Saudis). (4) He *might* find some way to make USA society more equal- this is a big one, because the potential is also there for things to go much worse than now (like Brexit, you can imagine many lose-lose scenarios where simply everyone loses out; he might well start a huge trade war with China from which the vast majority loses out).

The first President ever without experience of Public Office or military... I suppose that more than ever the people around him will count a lot. Let's hope there's a good team!   Other "expert" politicians, Wake Up!  - people need from you vision, ideas and well designed policies!  Or they will think they can do better without the experts.

Friday 21 October 2016

Draghi on the occasion of De Gasperi prize

I’ve remarked and lamented several times that “normal” people who have an interest in the EU working well, doing more and better than it is now of the things we need, don’t currently have a voice to represent them. National politicians are in a clear conflict of interest, and all too ready to invoke “national sovereignty” as some sort of ideal condition and excuse for inaction. The *many* who have worked in various countries, perhaps need to pay taxes and receive pensions across the 20th century states, or have started families in other regions, perhaps intercultural, feel European and need more. This is a large and growing number, an important and vibrant fraction of population in all EU regions, and I do wonder how it can get its voice heard. Not very clearly through the national MPs; not very clearly through the MEPs who also in the current system are a representation of national interests. This is a silence that needs to be filled – future EU structures must evolve. We also must find some bottom-up way or getting heard.

What we have today is that there are very few authoritative voices from the “top” who can take a European stance. I had the pleasure of finding and reading Mario Draghi’s speech last month, as he received the “De Gasperi Prize” in Trento  (De Gasperi was prime minister of Italy in the 8 years after World War II, and one of the key positive political figures in Italy's reconstruction and in establishing early European structures). I was going to summarise the speech in my own words, but I decided instead to translate it all. It's amazing that a banker (Draghi is head of the European Central Bank) should provide these striking words (stick to the end!). Draghi, 13th September 2016:

I have so many reasons to be grateful and honored by your decision to attribute to me today the De Gasperi prize. His figure, in the memory of his experience, send us an inspired message, strong, confident: "In Europe we go forward together in freedom." This message is rooted in European history of the last century. The ultimate reason for existence of government is to offer its citizens physical and economic security and, in a democratic society, to preserve the freedoms and individual rights along with social fairness, reflecting the judgment of the same citizens. 

Those who after World War II turned their eyes to the experience of the previous thirty years concluded that those governments that had emerged from nationalism, populism, from a language in which charisma was accompanied to lies, had not given their citizens security, fairness, freedom; they had betrayed the very reason for their existence.

 In tracing the lines of international relations between the future governments, De Gasperi and his contemporaries concluded that only cooperation between European countries in the context of a common organization could ensure mutual security of their citizens. 

Democracy within each country would not be enough; Europe also needed democracy among its nations. It was clear to many that erecting barriers between countries would have made them more vulnerable, and also less secure because of their geographic proximity; withdrawing within their own borders would make governments less effective in their action. 

In the words De Gasperi spoke in various speeches during those years we see his vision of how this community process was to be characterized. 

The common challenges should be faced with supranational strategies instead of intergovernmental. De Gasperi tells the Assembly of the European Coal and Steel Community (CZECH) 1954: “from 1919 to 1939 about seventy intergovernmental treaties have been prepared, and all have been reduced to scrap paper when we had to go to their implementation, because there was no joint control of common resources”. The experience of politicians was reflected in the analysis of famous economists including Ragnar Nurkse, showing how intergovernmental treaties ended up supporting protectionism. 

 Integration should first and foremost respond to the immediate needs of citizens. In his words: “we have to start by sharing only the minimum required for the realization of our most immediate goals, and do so through flexible formulas that can be applied in a gradual and progressive manner.” 

 The community’s actions should be focused in areas where it is clear that action by individual governments would not be enough: joint control of raw materials of military importance, in particular coal and steel, was one of the first examples. In this way the fathers of the European project were able to combine effectiveness and legitimation. The process was legitimized by popular support and had the support of governments: the project was directed towards goals in which the action of European institutions and the benefits to citizens were directly and visibly connected; Community action did not limit the authority of the Member States, but rather strengthened it and so received the support of governments. 

Motivating De Gasperi and his contemporaries was not just the failed experiences of the past, but also the immediate success brought by these first key decisions of the postwar period.

 The results obtained by working together. 
Peacebuilding, this fundamental achievement of the European project, produced growth immediately, setting a path to prosperity. By comparison we have the ravages of two world wars. 

 GDP per capita in real terms fell by 14% during the First World War and by 22% during the Second, canceling much of the growth of the previous years. 

Economic integration built on this peace in turn produced significant improvements in living standards. Since 1960, the cumulative growth of GDP per capita in real terms was higher by 33% in the EU 15 than in the US. In the poorer European countries the standard of living converged towards the levels of the richest. EU citizens acquired the right to live, work and study in any country of the Union; with the establishment of the courts of European Justice they enjoy an equal level of protection wherever they live. 

The single market, one of the main successes of the European project, has never been just a scheme to enhance integration and efficiency of markets. It was mainly a choice of those values represented by a free and open society, a choice of the EU citizens. 

The European project has sanctioned political freedoms, has from its beginning promoted the principles of liberal democracy. Guarantor of democratic principles, it served as a point of reference for those countries who wanted to escape dictatorship or totalitarianism; so it is has been for Greece, Portugal, Spain and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The Copenhagen criteria and the Charter of Fundamental Rights ensure that all EU countries comply with well-defined political principles, recognized in European and national laws. 

There is no doubt that these freedoms have contributed immensely to the welfare of Europe. It is also for these freedoms that today a huge flux of refugees and migrants seek their future in the European Union. 

European integration has ensured many years of physical and economic security to its citizens, perhaps for longer than has ever occurred in the history of Europe, at the same time spreading and growing the values of an open society. The European citizens who have started this process, and we who have experienced it, have proved to the world that freedom and security are not mutually exclusive. Rooting democracy we have ensured peace. 

 New challenges for Europe 
A growing dissatisfaction with the European project, however, has characterized the last years of this path. In the referendum of June 23 UK citizens have voted for an exit from the EU. 

 For some of the EU countries these were years that have seen the most serious economic crisis of the postwar period, with unemployment, especially among young people, reaching unprecedented levels in the presence of a social state whose margins for action shrunk for low growth and the constraints of public finance. These were years in which, in an aging continent, uncertainty grew about the sustainability of our pension systems. These were years in which large-scale migration called into discussion ancient customs of life, social contracts accepted for a long time. This awakens insecurity, arouses defenses. 

This disaffection has certainly also other causes: the end of the Soviet Union, resulting in the disappearance of the nuclear threat, have diverted attention from the notion of "safety in numbers." The balance of forces among the largest nations, ongoing geopolitical tensions, wars, terrorism, the changes in global weather, the effects of the continuous, relentless technological progress: in a short span of time all these factors interacted with the economic consequences of globalization, in a world inattentive to the distribution of its quite extraordinary improvements. While in the emerging economies this has redeemed from tyranny of poverty billions of people, in the advanced economies the real income of the most disadvantaged part of the population has remained at the levels of a few tens of years ago. The sense of abandonment felt by many is not surprising. Anxiety is growing. But the political response to this sometimes brings to mind the period between the two wars: isolationism, protectionism, nationalism. This already happened in the past: At the end of the first phase of globalization, in the early twentieth century, several countries, including those with a tradition of immigration like Australia and the United States, introduced restrictions on immigration, in response to fear in the working classes of losing jobs to the newcomers willing to work for lower wages. But rejecting these responses, although justified, must not prevent an examination of the causes of the lower participation to the European project. 

Again the foresight in the words of De Gasperi helps us to understand: "If we will build only common administrations, without a higher political aim enlivened by a central body, where the national aims can meet (...) we risk that this European activity, in comparison to lively national vitality, will be seen as cold and lacking ideals - It may also appear at some point to be a superfluous superstructure and perhaps even oppressive ".

 The structure of European integration is solid, its core values continue to give it a base, but we have to direction this process to answer more effectively and more directly the citizens, their needs, their fears and concentrate less on developing its institutions. Institutions are accepted by citizens not for their own sake but only insofar as they are necessary tools to provide these answers. 

 At other times it was rather the institutional incompleteness that prevented an optimal management of changes imposed by external circumstances. Think of the Schengen Agreement. Despite having largely eliminated internal European borders, it did not provide for a strengthening of the external ones. Therefore the onset of the migration crisis was perceived as a destabilizing loss of security. 

To these needs and concerns, the European Union and the nation states have given so far a deficient response. The polls, along with the decline of support to integration European Economic, also show public opinion having less confidence in the European Union and even less in the national states. 

This is not only true for Europe: data indicate even in the US diminished public confidence towards almost all institutions: the Presidency, the Congress and the Supreme Court. The fact that this is a worldwide phenomenon should not, however, be justification for us Europeans, because we alone in the world we have built a supranational entity in the knowledge that only with it the national states would give those answers that they were not able to give alone. 

Can Europe still be the answer? 
The question is simple but crucial: is working together still the best way to overcome the new challenges that we are facing? 

For various reasons the answer is yes, without conditions. If these challenges are of a cross-continental nature, then acting only at the national level is not enough. If they are global, then it’s the collaboration between its members that makes a strong European voice. 

The recent climate change negotiations are an example. The global issue can be addressed only through coordinated policies at the international level. The critical mass of Europe speaking with one voice has led to results well beyond the reach of individual countries. Only the pressure exerted by the European countries, who presented a common front, has enabled the success of the Paris conference on climate. Only the existence of the European Union has enabled building this common front. 

In a world where technology reduces physical barriers, Europe also exerts its influence in other ways. The ability of Europe, with its market of 500 million consumers, to impose the recognition of property rights globally, or respect for the rights to privacy on the Internet, is obviously higher that any Member State could hope to achieve alone. 

National sovereignty remains in many respects the key element of the government of a country. But as regards the challenges that transcend its borders, the only way of preserving national sovereignty, that is, to make the voice of their citizens in a global context, it is for us Europeans to share voices in the European Union, which has demonstrated can work as a multiplier of our national strength. 

As for the answers that can be given only at the supranational level, we should adopt the same approach that has enabled De Gasperi and his contemporaries to ensure the legitimacy of their actions: focus on interventions that bring tangible and immediately recognizable results. Such interventions are of two orders. The first is to carry out the initiatives already in progress, because stopping in the middle of the road is the most dangerous choice. We would have taken away from nation states part of their powers without creating at Union level the ability to provide citizens with at least the same degree of safety. 

A genuine single market can stay long free and fair only if all parties who take part are subject to the same laws and rules, and have access to systems judicial that apply them in a uniform manner. The free market is not anarchy; it is a political construction that requires common institutions capable of preserving freedom and fairness among its members. If these institutions are lacking or do not function adequately, we will end up eventually restoring nation boundaries to address the need for public safety. Therefore, to maintain an open society the single market must be developed fully. 

What makes this different today from the past is urgent attention that we should put towards the redistributive aspects of integration, towards those who have paid the highest price. I do not think there will be great progress on this front, and more generally in terms of market opening and competition, unless Europe will listen to the appeal of the victims of a societies built on the pursuit of wealth and power; if Europe, as well as a catalyst of integration and arbitrate of its own rules does not also become a moderator of its results. This is a role that today it is up to national states, but they often do not have the strength to see it through fully. It is a task that is not yet defined at European level, but that fits the characteristics outlined by De Gasperi: it complements the activities of national states, and legitimates European action. Recent discussions regarding the fairness of taxation, about a European insurance fund against unemployment, about funds for retraining, and other projects with the same footprint, go in this direction. 

But because Europe should intervene only where national governments are not able to act individually, the response must originate in the first place from the national level. We need policies to kickstart growth, reduce unemployment and increase individual opportunities, while providing the essential level of protection for the weakest. 

Second, if and when we will launch new joint projects in Europe, these must obey the same criteria that made possible the success of Seventy years ago: they should be based on the consensus that the intervention is actually necessary; They should be complementary to action by governments; they should be visibly connected to the immediate concerns of citizens; They should address unequivocally areas of European or global reach. 

 If we apply these criteria, we see that the involvement of Europe is not necessary in many areas. But it is necessary instead in other areas of clear importance, where European initiatives are not only legitimate but essential. Among these today specifically: immigration, security and defense. 

Both sets of interventions are essential, since the unresolved internal divisions, concerning for example the completion of EMU, are likely to distract us from new geopolitical, economic and environmental challenges that have emerged. It is a real danger today, that we cannot afford. We must find the strength and intelligence to overcome our differences and move forward together. 

To this end, we must rediscover the spirit that allowed a few great leaders, in far more difficult conditions than today, to overcome mutual distrust and succeeding together instead fail alone. In conclusion I come to mention Alcide De Gasperi, whose words retain from 1952 all their actuality: “Economic cooperation is certainly the result of compromise between each participant’s natural desire for independence, and prominent political aspirations. If European economic cooperation had depended on compromises put forward by the various administrations involved, we probably would have stumbled on weaknesses and inconsistencies. It is therefore the political aspiration to unity that must prevail. We must be guided first of all by the fundamental knowledge that the construction of a united Europe is essential to ensure peace, progress and social justice.”

Friday 30 September 2016

Rosetta and the BBC

Today, the European Space Agency (ESA) Rosetta mission to make for th first time in humanity contact with a comet came to a close, as the "mothership" was sent to crash land on the comet surface, as planned, gathering unprecendented data in the process.

See if you notice something:

BBC online front page title:
Rosetta probe crashes into its comet
Europe's Rosetta probe has ended its mission to Comet 67P by crash-landing on to the icy object's surface.

Italian daily La Repubblica:
Rosetta, gran finale :
si รจ spenta la sonda Esa arrivata sulla cometa 67P

The Guardian
Rosetta space probe to end mission with touchdown on comet 67P
ESA’s Rosetta space mission is to end today with a touchdown on its target comet at 12:18 BST. Follow this daring manoeuvre live

I may be a bit paranoid... but is there a Brexit bias even in reporting on the European Rosetta mission?! I saw the BBC website first, and thought the whole thing had failed!

Anyway - rest assured, I am not emailing the BBC on this. I'm sure you all want to know what happened to my previous complaint. Here is the response:
 It's natural that our coverage before and after the referendum will be different. The UK has voted to leave, so rehearsing all of the arguments for and against does not address the current situation. So while you say the BBC is no longer digging into issues, we are reflecting the prevailing landscape and the issues and concerns that brings with it; it is likely there will be less focus on some of the areas that featured more prominently before the vote.
We're sorry you did not like Gavin Hewitt's piece; it sought to assess the state of the EU in the wake of the UK vote, and we believe it did so informatively and accurately. He acknowledged that there are those who wish to expand the union further.
We are all in limbo to some extent, waiting to see where the government is heading, so it can be difficult to address specific points in our coverage. James Dyson was a prominent leaver who we spoke to before the referendum, so it is reasonable to hear his views now on the single market.
From the other perspective, we have reported the views, among others, of the head of the German central bank, Wall Street leaders and other political parties:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37405430
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37427030
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-37455242
But we don't really recognise the picture you seem to be painting of us ignoring pro-European voices; you can get some idea of the scale of our coverage here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/uk_leaves_the_eu
However, it may be fair to say that in-depth reports about the future plans of the European Union are less of an imperative given that the UK has voted not to be part of it.


I must say I'm impressed that the BBC does get back to people who file complaints... and this time they picked the response from the right box. I'm not sure if this looks more like a curled up hedgehog or a tightly shut clam, but in either case the point is that both those animals are not up to very much very much in their corresponding defensive states.
Again, rest assured, I am not going to waste more precious license-fee paid time on this complaint even though I find the EU and Brexit coverage outrageous for a license-fee funded news broadcaster. I'm just going to have my final word here on two points: (a) obviously coverage evolves with new events, but it is *not* natural that editorial policy should change suddenly, it cannot be that something right has become wrong overnight and all reason is lost; (b) One should be very worried about the statement that the EU will not be reported on in-depth, since the UK is still part of it, and if/how it really exits depends quite substantially on the evolution of the EU itself and how public opinion here might come to change their minds. We live in an amazing time.
P.S. What a missed opportunity, in the wake of this spectacular European failure, not to announce today the UK do-it-alone manned space mission to Mars: contracts have been awarded to JCB for terraforming tractors, and Dyson to clean up the dust and vacuum.

Saturday 24 September 2016

Data and error bars

I spend most of my working hours as a scientist looking at data in research papers, and unpublished data from my group's experimental activity, and figuring out when these data are significant enough to represent a firm conclusion.

So I continue to be worried about the 48/52 result and it's strength. Let's call this ratio the "Brexit index". There are two problems.

(a) This was an index that had huge fluctuations (judging from polls) up to the vote; the vote captured one moment in time of this fluctuating volatile index. Now one does not embark on a project that takes at least two years, and has consequences for future decades, on the basis of one "read". One would not do this in buying a house, or some stocks... and even when we shop in the supermarket we know (for our regular products) the average price, so that we are not scammed too much by promotions.

(b) The second problem is that this "Brexit index" as well as being volatile due to people changing their minds is also subject to changes due to changes in the people eligible to vote. It is not easy for the human brain to contemplate very different timescales, and these days we are so bombarded with rapid changes and statements that I suspect we all focus (Brexit-wise) on the short term. Almost 1 million people die each year of old age, and 1 million people come into the electorate. Nobody can dispute that the vote was polarised between young and old (of course, not all the young and not all the old...) but for the sake of argument let me assume the case (there is the strong assumption here that on this issue the younger will not drift to the opinions of the older; I think this is a valid assumption because the desire to remain comes from personal experience and culture that was simply not shared by older people).
So, this is an index quite likely to drift towards remain. How quickly ? Well very roughly there is a 4% turnover of the electorate in less than 3 years.

In conclusion: (a) We don't know if the result has statistical significance; (b) it would be a huge paradox if the UK finally exited from the EU just when its electorate became in favour of remaining in.

What should we do? The brexit process will carry a huge "direct cost" in legal fees (there are reasonable estimates for this around), and much greater "indirect costs" that are at the moment impossible to estimate precisely because they depend on how the process goes. In this context, I suggest that measuring the "Brexit index" weekly, via a very well done poll (made public, and with such a sampling base that nobody can argue about its validity) is a necessity. In fact, this should be the first thing that the "Brexit Minister" should deliver. And then what ? (a) we will have an idea of the "error bars" on this result, and (b) we will be able to see what trends there might be on the index (obviously, demographics is just one aspect, and people might be responding differently as they understand better what is happening).

Finally, to state the obvious: if the "Brexit index" is not significantly < 0.5, and/or if there is a trend that sets it to get above 0.5 in the timescale of leaving the EU, then I don't see how there is any sort of mandate to leave.

Wednesday 21 September 2016

BBC - this is unbelieavable!

Ok hold on tight, you may not believe this.
On 14th Sept, I sent this complaint (following up from my previous blog post):
Bias in Brexit reporting and opinion pieces
Full Complaint:
The Gavin Hewitt piece is shallow and misinforming. (Today, the interview with Sir Dyson on the front page is simply a bias of information through selection of what is chosen for the website: where have the pro EU voices gone ? I seem to remember they were the vast majority of business.) Some Brexit facts, let’s repeat them in the face of the brainwashing that is going on: There has been a consultative referendum; A narrow majority to leave the EU; No clarity over a “delivery plan”; Almost unanimously the experts (politicians, economists, academics) are in favour of remaining in the EU; Most business was also pro-EU; The country is still in the EU until it actually leaves (if it does), and this will take many years (if it happens). The BBC is a better public information organisation than the equivalent in many other countries, but if you have lived here enough you will have spotted significant changes following the political fortunes. BBC, remember who deserves and needs to be informed, and who pays you! Stand up to any blackmail from the government! Most opinion pieces (and the choice of people shown, and facts reported) during the last few weeks are very worrying in terms of balanced reporting. Gone seems the desire to dig into issues, investigate and report in an independent manner. The Gavin Hewitt piece makes a curry out of many problems facing EU countries and politicians. It is undeniable that parts of public opinion in every country will have different views on various issues. The piece fails to acknowledge the significant benefits to wide sectors of society that come from EU agreements, and how for large numbers of people (probably a sign (probably a significant majority) things would be better if further progress was made towards a federal or better coordinated union.
Today, I get the following answer:

Thanks for contacting us about BBC News’ coverage of the EU referendum, in particular the result of the vote and the direct consequences over the past few weeks. We appreciate you feel our coverage has been overly negative and biased against the decision to leave the E.U.
We have received a wide range of feedback about our coverage of this story across our news programmes and bulletins. Keeping in mind pressures on licence fee resources, this response seeks to address the key points raised. That said, we apologise in advance if your complaint has not been specifically addressed here.
As you may be aware, Jonathan Munro, Head of Newsgathering at BBC News, appeared on ‘Newswatch’ on 1 July to specifically address concerns raised by our audience about our recent coverage. You can still watch the edition here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07htbgq
During the programme Jonathan Munro addressed criticisms that BBC News’ coverage has been alarmist after the result, featuring too much coverage of people who wanted to remain in the EU. He explained BBC News has looked at reactions from both sides (those who wanted to remain and those who didn’t) and are covering the story of what it looks like to leave the EU from many different angles.
Jonathan explained that he didn’t agree with the suggestion that BBC News are looking only at the negative outcomes of the vote. He explained that we believe our coverage has been balanced and that we have looked at the potential effects Brexit could have on the job market, because technically we still don’t know the full impact.
He went on to explain that BBC News has covered many positive aspects of the outcome. For example, what immigration for non-EU citizens could look like, and what trade deals with places like New Zealand and Canada could look like. BBC News has also covered some positive outcomes coming from the falling value of the Pound.
Jonathan Munro went on to assure viewers that nobody at the BBC thinks that 17 million people of the population are racist. He pointed to examples of where we have interviewed a wide range of voters who chose “leave”. Jonathan added that he didn’t believe the BBC was too ‘London-centric’ and explained that ‘Question Time’, for example, came from both Preston and Birmingham in the run up to the referendum.
We hope this goes some way in addressing your concerns. We believe our coverage of the result has been fair, accurate and impartial. This is a quickly developing story and we will strive to continue to report on it in this manner.


I appreciate (green highlight) that the BBC is getting a lot of complaints. I hope actually that they get a number sufficient to cause great worry. What is unbelievable is that they have taken my complaint as meaning I wanted more "Brexit" strength!!! Now I can only assume one of two things: (a) they don't really read the complaints carefully; (b) they are now so Brexit-biased that my text reads to them as an accusation of supporting "remain" too much?!!
In either case, this is beginning to feel a bit hopeless. Your complaint (it seems) could be taken to mean the opposite of what you say. I will complain now again, and I am curious to see if they have a different standard response for "remainers" that I can treasure. At least I want to make sure the bean-counters record that I was a remain voice.

Wednesday 14 September 2016

BBC, you have a duty towards your license fee payers, not to the government!

On the front page of the BBC news website few days ago, a promising titled piece “What has the EU learnt since Brexit?”, by Gavin Hewitt Chief correspondent:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37337950

Today, front page interview with Sir James Dyson recommending a full exit from the free market:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37352312

The Gavin Hewitt piece is shallow and misinforming. The interview with Sir Dyson is simply a bias of information through selection of what is chosen for the website: where have the pro EU voices gone ? I seem to remember they were the vast majority of business.

Some Brexit facts, let’s repeat them in the face of the brainwashing that is going on: There has been a consultative referendum; A narrow majority to leave the EU; No clarity over a “delivery plan”; Almost unanimously the experts (politicians, economists, academics) are in favour of remaining in the EU; Most business was also pro-EU; The country is still in the EU until it actually leaves (if it does), and this will take many years (if it happens).

The BBC is a better public information organisation than the equivalent in many other countries, but if you have lived here enough you will have spotted significant changes following the political fortunes. BBC, remember who deserves and needs to be informed, and who pays you! Stand up to any blackmail from the government!

Most opinion pieces (and the choice of people shown, and facts reported) during the last few weeks are very worrying in terms of balanced reporting. Gone seems the desire to dig into issues, investigate and report in an independent manner.

The Gavin Hewitt piece makes a curry out of many problems facing EU countries and politicians. It is undeniable that parts of public opinion in every country will have different views on various issues. The piece fails to acknowledge the significant benefits to wide sectors of society that come from EU agreements, and how for large numbers of people (probably a significant majority) things would be better if further progress was made towards a federal or better coordinated union.

Why does Gavin Hewitt think that national politicians should lead on EU integration? Politicians would have to cede some power a “level up” (to other democratic institutions), and it is not very much in their own interest.

Who are the EU ambassadors ? People like the Erasmus exchange students, those who have set up international families, those who study, work or have retired in another country or enjoy not worrying about where they are spending bits of their lives. It is not easy for this group to have a loud voice, but they have to try! This is the EU from the “bottom up”. (Top-down EU is motivated and proceeds into agreements only when there are threats and emergencies…) EU exit would be a huge obstacle to a lot of people, and the current and future positives of the EU for normal people need to be brought to light much more.

If you notice things that you think are incorrect on BBC News, it only takes a minute or so to fill out the comments or complaints form, you first log on to the BBC website.

Sunday 11 September 2016

Schengen and queues

I must admit – I am not a EU lawyer, and I don’t know *all* the consequences of joining (or not) the Schengen treaty. I suspect, for example, that joining *would* then have consequences on how extra-EU migration is regulated, and hence also how to respond to the refugee catastrophe. So maybe the UK does want to stay out of it, if it wants its own distinct policy for immigration with respect to non-EU countries.

Let me focus on the consequences of Schengen for normal people. This agreement came into force in 1990, between many EU countries, and allowed the movement of citizens without border control (has nothing to do with free movement of people, which is a more general right of EU citizens). For millions of people, it made queues at the many land borders in the continent, and at airports, a thing of the past.

The UK never signed up to this, I'm not sure why. I’ve lived in the UK almost 17 years. I have traveled to the EU at least 6 times per year on average (work and holidays), flying. The passport control queues on coming back at the airport were on average 20 minutes (but often way more, causing loss of train connection, inconvenience if someone was waiting for me, etc.). So I have spent in queues something like 2040 minutes, i.e. 34 hours.

Consider the annoyance of standing in a queue after a long trip and flight. How do you factor in time with tired children, or the extra burden if you are elderly or disabled? In the simplest case let’s just asses the direct economic cost. A professional earning £30 per hour (that’s more than the average wage of about £12 per hour, but a lot less than a dentist, doctor, lawyer, …) and traveling the same amount as me would be losing £60 per year. Not much perhaps, but add to that the inconvenience. And most of all ask yourself what the point of this is. These are all travelers incoming from the Schengen zone: the EU citizens have the right to come into the UK, and any non-EU people have already been registered and checked.

Let’s also try to ball-park the cost on the border-control agency side and focus on airports. There are about 137 million passengers from the EU per year coming into UK airports (https://www.caa.co.uk/News/Passenger-numbers-at-UK-airports-increase-for-the-third-year-in-a-row/?catid=4294967494) Let’s assume that each passport check takes 1 minute. And that border control staff cost at least £25 per hour (I want to include pension, NI, etc - this is just an estimate, I have not researched precise costs): we are looking at a salary bill of at least £57 million per year. This is likely to be quite larger as I think my cost per hour is underestimating (and I have ignored ports & Chunnel).

£57 million a year. A lot? A little? It depends what for. So what for exactly, in this case? Copy-pasting from above, these checks are on travelers incoming from the Schengen zone: the EU citizens have the right to come into the UK, and any non-EU people have already been registered and checked.

To put this in perspective, you could build two brand-new secondary schools per year with these funds (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/4952004.stm). Or else those same border control staff might be working on fighting international drugs trading, or other agency objectives.

Why choose to be just part-in the EU? Some of the benefits come from being full-in. In the case of Schengen, maybe someday the public should come round to asking their MPs why the UK is out, what do we gain by not having the full advantage of traveling without borders.

Saturday 10 September 2016

On Oaths and Jobs

Email circulated to all personnel in my University last week, from the Head of Recruitment Services:
The University recognises that the recent EU referendum decision has caused uncertainty for our EEA nationals, and therefore we are pleased to offer a series of presentations which will provide legal and practical information around residency and citizenship options. [...]

I'm sure the email has best intentions and aims to help distressed EU employees.

But will it come to this: apply for citizenship (swear an Oath to the Crown), or lose my job?!

Fascism gained power in Italy at the 1922 elections. Racial laws against Jews were enacted much later, in 1938 (they “only” limited civil rights and access to jobs, although many citizens and opposition members were by then imprisoned or exiled) and led to an exodus of scientists and academics. Most famously, Enrico Fermi travelled to Stockholm to collect his Physics Nobel Prize in December 1939 and did not return to Italy.

What is perhaps less well known is that in 1931 the Fascist regime forced all academics to swear a new Oath of alliance, to the Motherland & the Fascist party:
https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giuramento_di_fedelt%C3%A0_al_fascismo (in Italian here)

Those who refused lost their University Faculty jobs. This was before racial laws, and only about 15 of 1200 professors refused, amongst these the world famous mathematician Vito Volterra. Einstein, then still in Germany (Hitler came to power in 1933) was already a famous scientist (his Nobel prize was 1922), was called to intervene and wrote to the government (getting a response but not affecting things), and then noted somewhat prophetically in his personal diary “good times ahead in Europe”.

Keep an eye on the BBC

The BBC has enormous influence on public opinion in the UK (although some parts of society choose other sources of information), and this is usually a good thing because its reporting and investigating standards are high.

So it comes as a surprise when things go wrong. Take a look at the "Brexit Street" piece here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37306646
A valuable report, raising important questions, and giving voice to people we don't often hear in the news. But unfortunately also (I imagine not on purpose) a piece of disinformation. What is almost entirely a report on asylum seekers, and the mixed response of the local community, is implicitly pitched as a debate relevant to Brexit. Now there's no denying that some people were (on purpose) made to confuse EU and extra-EU migration, which as I discuss in my longer previous posts are quite different things. But the BBC should be careful to provide information and reports that clarify reality rather than obscuring it.

If you notice things that you think are incorrect on BBC News, it only takes a minute or so to fill out the comments or complaints form, you first log on to the BBC website.

Friday 9 September 2016

EU and Brexit thoughts- Part III: the times ahead

What is the government going to do?

Politicians have a real problem now on their hands, as the turnout was large (which is great in itself). They can’t ignore the vote (even if they wished so) because this would split both major parties, and cause disaffection in a vast number of people. But they have no plan. They also know that this 52.1% is representing quite diverse people with not much in common, which is why there is no plan. The only point of contact might be on feelings of nationalism and a hate of immigration, but even those concepts are not held in the same way by rich Tories in the countryside as they are by working class communities in the industrial North. Plus, it is questionable that the UK as a whole would happily gather around those as new founding values for the future.

So if we have trust in politicians, then we would think they will step up to the job of working out what’s possible, and reconciling the diverse needs, desires and fears in the population. Perhaps address some of those important concerns directly, perhaps disentangle these real issues from the idea of a Brexit.

If we have less trust, we need to be especially aware that this moment of great upheaval not be exploited by a few to run ahead with an agenda that has nothing to do with the intentions of the majority of people.

Are we in a period of “mainstream” vs “protest” politics ? Yes, this seems to be a defining split at the moment in various countries, and the split cuts across the traditional political lines. Is this a new phenomenon, is the fraction of disaffected people increasing ? Hard to say, but there are many examples in western countries over the last decades of protest movements growing very strong, up to 35 or 40% of the vote. Some quite extreme parties have temporarily held majorities (so far not in the largest countries). Perhaps the financial crisis, and the coordinated responses of western economies (and also other factors such as refugee emergency) have somehow synchronised how people think across similar countries, and what we have now is nothing new except it’s happening at the same time everywhere. Most definitely the traditional parties need to respond to this with reason and with intelligent policies and plans; a race for who manages to be more populist seems a losing one (the genuine populists win it).

Why the future is not just in UK hands.

The EU evolves. Unpredictably. Although I believe it is headed irreversibly towards working better and more strongly together, this does get in the way of governments and other interests, and so it’s a process that takes time and proceeds abruptly. Germany and France have parliamentary elections in 2017, and hopefully will discuss and resolve some of the same issues presented here. It could well be that further integration gets a sudden boost. Already the EU is not a monolith: there are 4 or 5 combinations of how different countries have accepted the key treaties (the euro, free trade, Schenghen, etc). The countries that share them all could well take another step – it would be good for them. If they do so by themselves (e.g. decide to have a single finance ministry?) that creates a small “core” (which the UK would not obviously join in this generation) with a corona of other states that perhaps are not ready now to share so much. Brexit from such a “corona” might then not be wished for, at least by those voters fearing further integration.

Other trade partners. This is purely a matter of legal agreements – but they take time. The UK needs to pay (lawyers cost a lot) a huge number of people to arrange these. What I’ve not heard pointed out is that each of the new trade partners also needs to cough up these legal costs (to negotiate a trade agreement with a country they already trade with) – why would they be happy of this, or in a rush ?

Macroscopic effects from migration are just here to stay, they will influence the UK and all the other rich economies, Brexit or not. Likewise globalisation with its impact on workforce and the sustainability only of very efficient, very customised, or very high added value manufacturing.

What would seem a fair path forward?

The PM will be strongly constrained. But politicians should keep the broader debate up. People should be helped to discuss these issues, and to avoid entrenching on prejudice. More information needs to be made available.

The debate needs to continue amongst everyone. If the Brexit process can be reversed it will only be through a sway of public opinion.

If the banks go, the economy tanks, the state is bankrupt and the nation splits. This set of events will not happen in this period of uncertainty, but if it starts happening I don’t see anything good for anyone.

This UK government should work hard, see if they can identify any future at all along the Brexit path, convince people that avenues have been explored. They should set their timelines such that the people can be consulted again (e.g. by an election in 2 years’ time). This should be after we know what course would be followed, but before the ship is steered irreversibly. This intent probably can’t be stated now because it weakens the cohesion of government and perhaps negotiations, fine. But it does not hurt to say it’s possible things might plan out this way. Or just do it.

EU and Brexit thoughts- Part II: now

Our new leaders seem to have grouped around the idea that immigration is a problem, and that it represents the unifying factor behind the Brexit result. Hence the current position that free movement with the rest of EU is not going to remain. For the reasons above, I think this position is bad. Free movement is a strength for the economy (in both good and bad times) and enriches cultures.

What is quite perverse is that a few simple policies could turn the question on its head, and should have been acted on in the last decades. Poor people felt threatened? An answer could be better schools, better and cheaper housing in areas where this is needed. Was there evidence that EU migrants were abusing, or being attracted by, specific benefits? If so, maybe one should question if these benefits should be modified anyway; they might not be healthy permanent levers in our society if they remain entrenched in families and neighbourhoods across generations? Maybe new programs should have been rolled out (they might be more expensive, but more effective in getting people to be productive in the economy?). Certainly, major societal problems are not addressed by cost cutting.

What damage is already done ?

We are suddenly poorer. As of today (pound at 1.19) a 9% drop on 1.31 before the referendum. On the mean family annual income of £30K, this means £2700 lost per year (if you think in Euros as the reference currency, and USD is similar). Everything not made in this country, and everything made here that relies on oil or raw materials (that means essentially everything) will end up costing more or less that 9% much more within a short time. If you travel and spend abroad, things are that much more expensive right away.

The 9% loss in purchasing power is just the beginning. This is how the currency market has priced in the period of uncertainty. You can be sure that if Brexit plans lead to the loss of London’s Financial capital status, the damage to the currency will be significant. This is the top of the food chain in our economy: try taking away the whales from the Eskimo village.

What we have already now, I expect, is a period of more volatile exchange rate due to the markets reacting to variable perceived Brexit futures. Volatility is a disaster for small businesses that don’t have the tools and resources to hedge against changes; it can be dealt with in part by larger businesses (essentially by insuring – but this is an extra cost that is not carried by businesses with a stable currency, so it’s a handicap). However even large businesses when making long term investments (think deciding to build a large car plant) will then quite likely choose not to have to bear the price of volatility.

We have significantly messed up both our internal and foreign policy for years to come. Our top people will be spending a significant fraction of their time on this specific point; but these are the same people that we would want to have dealing with our internal affairs (think development policies) and our strategic foreign interests. As well as preparing for and responding to emergencies and challenges that have a habit of appearing unexpectedly.

What are the immediate dangers if Brexit does go ahead?

The economic cost (currency devaluation, increased volatility) will get worse. This will tend to increase inflation. If the economy goes in recession, there will have to be quantitative easing, but this will further cause inflation and currency devaluation. So we have a Bank of England and an independent currency, but they will be under conflicting pressures. If the income from tax revenue drops (from banks moving away) the government will struggle more than now to reconcile the need for investment to promote growth with addressing some of our emerging societal unease.

The structural stability of UK as a country is in danger: Scots voted fairly narrowly to be part of the UK within Europe; they seem likely to vote differently if the UK is not EU member. Even more dangerously (given the more recent historical scars, and troubles) and sadly, one might expect violence to resurface in Northern Ireland. That violence had finally been resolved not just thanks to the work of many people, but also thanks to a sense that the border had ceased to be visible. If that border goes back (and differences and inequalities resurface) then the costs will be huge.

EU and Brexit thoughts- Part I: looking back, what we should have known

Why is it still worth reflecting and understanding this vote.

Much has been said already – indeed I think a lot of the thoughts below have probably been expressed better by others. Yet this vote is so shocking, and has consequences that are potentially so far reaching, that everyone still needs to think through what has happened. Also, the referendum was one loud sounding of the electorate, but much (in fact, everything) is still up in the air, with the potential for discussion. The PM starting the process asking everyone to identify opportunities is a good thing – people need to know a lot more about this alternative reality that has been chosen in the dark. What comes back should then be assessed, and compared to the status quo or to other ways forward. The assessment should, I think, eventually be put to people again, but certainly not right away because the Brexit alternative is as fuzzy as it was before the Summer. We know what we have, nobody knows what is being proposed.

Simple fact #1: if our economy sinks, we all lose. The rich lose more, but the poor lose what they need.

#2: regardless of whether within the EU, or as a “free” country, the economy of the UK will be linked to that of all other countries. This means you can only produce and sell at a profit if you do things better than everyone else. If a product is similar in type, it has to have higher quality or be cheaper. Both things can be achieved in western manufacturing, but this takes a lot of talent and skill. There are no shortcuts. It is not like we will suddenly lead the world in areas where we don’t already excel, except if a lot of effort is put into improving a sector (but this is equally true in or out of the EU).

#3: comparing to the other large EU countries, the best asset that the UK has for free is its language. This feeds not just into the education system, but much more widely into the economy, allowing the country to be a hub and a “picker” of the most appropriate people for jobs that require specific skills. For the UK free movement, as well as being a privilege as for the other EU countries, is incredibly valuable economically. Close up to free movement, and this quite significant competitive advantage is lost.

What did the 52.1% of voters have in mind.

The result was unexpected, and completely unrepresentative of the fraction of elected MPs. These two facts have the same explanation: the reasons behind these Brexit votes are diverse, and in an election (or an opinion poll) they each come out as minority opinions.

One clear example: you can criticise the EU for being a force for globalisation, hurting the weak, removing protections that nation states were able to put in place (think the Redcar steel plant); you can also criticise the EU by saying you want even more globalisation, and free trade with everyone (argument you hear now in the Brexit minister). Now it’s obvious that these two groups of people want opposite policies and outcomes, and have nothing in common!

By having a conservative PM call the referendum, a weak Labour leadership (unable/unwilling to make good positive arguments), and the absence of any genuine pro EU voice (which would have been the Lib Dems, wiped out by their previous choice of coalition), this created a perfect storm. The arguments and the spokespeople pro-EU were just too weak. Nobody came out with strong positive arguments (but not due to lack of these, see below).

Of course the Brexit campaign was also helped by the fact that for years (and unfortunately this is true also in every other EU country) governments have found it easy to point to the EU as a source of problems, whilst claiming any successes for themselves. A particularly perverse long term corollary of this has been the low turnout at EU elections in the UK, leading to a large number of UKIP MEPs, and hence an even more hindered channel of communication and representation back to citizens as opposed to other countries.

So the 52.1% is a strange mix. People had different reasons to say No. How many were led by each reason would have to be researched with some care; some people might even have been driven by more than one of: immigration, red tape, regulation, costs of being EU member, fear of further loss of sovereignty (or even return to full sovereignty), nationalism. These seemed the main concepts behind Brexit.

On EU migration.

Migration comes in two very different sorts: from within and from outside the EU. I’m sure this is clear to many, but perhaps not everyone! The confusion was played up (imagery of the desperate situation in the Mediterranean, and the small but dramatic scenes at Calais). Whilst there are some differences in standard of living, and in wages, across the EU, these are nothing compared to the differences with the poorest countries. It is unfortunately the case that a significant fraction of the world’s population is so poor and lives in such dire conditions that they are prepared to set off with nothing at all in search of a better life. This will be a challenge for decades to come, and how to evolve our global society is a huge problem. My only Brexit-related thought about this is that given the homogeneity of EU countries, we in the EU all share the same challenge, and it is better to tackle this gigantic task as one.

Let me focus just on migration between EU countries: they all have schooling, health care, social services, infrastructure that are in some ways better, similar or worse than the UK’s, but in all cases comparable (that is kind of the condition for joining the EU…). It is just slight differences and opportunities, or just the excitement of living in a different country, that drive internal EU movements.

The analogy with the USA is the most appropriate: there are significant differences in the standard of living between States, some of which seem to have been there forever, others reflect changes in the economy. As a result, the population responds and moves. This eventually balances out, with some regions becoming attractive to investment. Sometimes this rebalancing necessitates federal support, or the creation of special incentives in particular areas. Whilst Americans feel attachment to the areas that they were born in (and many never move), I don’t think they wish each State to isolate its population and finances; that would be counter to what they have achieved through their history, and incredibly damaging to everyone. When they criticise the Federal state and structures, it is usually in the context of perceived waste (but also there – one would need to understand well the context and consequences of various programmes, their benefits, as well as the costs which are more easily known).

Nobody argues with the fact that there has been a net flow into the UK in recent years (fewer left than arrived), but in the 1970s and early 1980s more British people left to live in other EU countries than came in, not to retire in the sunshine but because they lacked jobs. Millions of Britons also now live out of the UK in the EU, and vice versa. This freedom is a richness, and a buffer for everyone when something particularly good (you need people) or bad (there is no work…) happens in a region. All these people benefit hugely from the standardisation of all the bureaucracy that goes with living: finding a job, renting/buying, driving license renewals, paying taxes in the right places, having pension schemes and savings that can be moved. There is a paradox linking migration to the Brexit vote: the counties most against migration are the ones with the least immigration. So it’s as if people have voted against something which is anyway not happening much where they live. Why? One interpretation is that these are also the poorest areas (hence why immigration is less), and that the little migration present is actually damaging local employment in scant and fairly low paying jobs. The other interpretations are bleak: that in these areas there is more racism/nationalism, or a sense of fear not wanting to compete or understand others; both of these stem from ignorance.

On Europe and the EU.

Pages can be written about the process of European integration, and its successes. It is a continuing process, certainly unfinished, and there is a strong historical drive in that direction. The EU is not just a free market, although free trade amongst similar economies is a no-brainer. Some people (and governments) seem to understand only the common market concept – but this is a strange position to hold, just imagine the USA is every state had a separate army and foreign policy, and no federal security agencies… it would not be the world power that it is. After centuries (millennia?) of wars, trade, migration, and then specifically two world wars essentially sparked in Europe and fought extensively across the continent, the EU represents perhaps the first time that Europe democratically and peacefully develops institutions to work closely together. The USA also only came to its current Federation following huge violence in its civil war; the two world wars can be seen as analogous in that sense.

When you compare how similar the cultures (and the history over the last 2500 years) are across Europe, and add into this how similar the standards of living are, then it makes a lot of sense to aim to share professional qualifications, structures to fight crime, levels of taxation, etc. You still want some freedom locally, in a similar way as nation states allow individual regions, counties and cities to manage budgets and projects, but treating Europe as a Federal state would remove a lot of duplication and can lead to great improvements for everyone. There are projects that are so large scale (energy generation, scientific facilities, defence, some very specialised healthcare) that they can be best planned across nations.

All this obviously assumes that when differences are found, there are then sufficient incentives and oversight so that best practice wins out rather than the more inefficient way of doing.

Europe as a whole is the biggest economy in the world; it has great potential to grow further (precisely by bringing best practice to those regions that in recent history have had poor governance, and by further removing obstacles on setting up businesses across states) whilst at the same time it offers a better example of stable and fair social structure when compared to other mature (USA) or developing (India, China) economies.

The EU has already achieved a lot: the integration between continental nations is a process that very few Europeans would wish to wind back; the referendum also told us that young UK voters in significant majority feel part of this.

No, the EU is not perfect. Its institutions at times appear opaque (but it’s not true to say that the EU institutions are not democratic – they variously result from our voting of MEPs, their votes, and our elected governments), they could communicate better, they need to resolve their PR problem with national governments. Compared to how well UK citizens are informed about how local funds are used (policing, schools, roads, etc) there is an abyss on our understanding of how the EU “federal” budget is spent. The process of “optimisation” is still partial. Do we need national armies, with each army replicating all the units that might be necessary? We could impact much more strongly if the Foreign policy was more coordinated. We could cut tax evasion and elusion much more effectively with integrated revenue systems.

The Euro.

Somebody has to say that this is a success! I think there’s an element of covering their backs in the fact few British politicians are prepared to argue on this. They (Tony Blair times) chose not to enter the single currency, and it’s as if this has had to be continually restated as the right choice. Let’s examine just three facts:

1) The Euro made its debut in January of 1999 at a rate of 1.42 euros to one pound. The value of GBP has fluctuated a lot since then, with highs of 1.52 in 2007, a low of 1.02 at the financial crisis in 2008. It never since in the last 8 years reached the original 1.42 level again, and currently it is at 1.19. This is a 16% drop on the value in 1999. I think I a young child would understand that currency that wins 16% is a winner.

2) There is much confusion linking the Greece problems and repeated bailouts to the single currency. It’s true that if Greece had its own currency then it would have freedom to print more, and dilute its debts by inflation. This was what most Southern European countries were constantly doing before the introduction of the euro. But this is just a trick to get people (the currency holders) to pay up the debt (money is printed, the central bank funds itself, and wages are immediately worth less, until workers fight for increases but in the meantime have lost out). What is happening now is more transparent: we can clearly see if/when there is a region of Europe (Greece is the most obvious example, but there are other regions in need, including within the UK, think areas of Wales and NI especially) that needs help. As might seem more natural in the USA, we then have a “federal” procedure to support this region via investments. If things take the language of “crisis”, it is because this reasoning is new in the EU context, and both from within Greece (incorrect accounting) and from EU institutions (and various Banks) there was not a clear understanding of the structures required to work in a “federal” fashion across slightly heterogeneous regions, and the corresponding checks.

3) It seems to me that the reality is that the Euro has helped massively both the slightly richer and poorer countries, in different ways. The UK should have joined in 1999. The only reason not to join is if an economy is strikingly different from another, this is the case for Norway with its gigantic oil income per head of population. But UK oil production is declining, and weighs much less in the overall economy compared to Norway. The UK economy is not dissimilar to that of France, Italy, NL or Germany. For example, the Bank of England stepped in with quantitative easing to bailout banks and support the economy in 2007 – but the EU central bank did more or less the same. I can’t envision a situation where the UK economy would require some monetary policy opposite to the other continental ones. I can however see the costs of a volatile currency (more below).

Why is the UK important to the continent?

Probably the biggest loss to the EU with Brexit would be the absence of the British sense of pragmatism, a natural ability and desire to keep mechanisms simple, to monitor and optimise procedures. The other countries don’t have this in their DNA, and the “French” way is certainly one of heavier and less efficient administration.

The tradition of accountability is pervasive. Nowhere is perfect (and one can bring some terrible examples from here too, think the Saudi arms deal), but the UK offers many examples of very well planned and run complex organisation, like the infrastructure and regeneration in connection to the London Olympics. This also shows up in small routine things, such as the maintenance of streets and pavements which is better than in many other EU countries.

The UK has been able to integrate people for decades, from very diverse non-EU cultures. Again, no society is perfect, but one can argue that integration seems to have worked better in the UK compared to France (at least the level of apparent social conflict is lower in the UK).

The UK political institutions have been the most solid and long lasting in the west, evolving responding and adapting rather than suffering revolutions (actually Brexit seems to bring about the most serious institutional instability imaginable – the disaggregation of the nation). The quality of politics is high, especially the national level seems to be debated more sensibly and rationally than in other countries and there is a sense of healthy pragmatism at all levels of decision making.

The UK has traditional ties and links with different areas of the world: in fact due to history they are exact complements of the regions culturally connected to France and Germany. So definitely continental EU would lose a lot from Brexit. The economic “market” as such is not really at risk: if a UK buyer really wants a BMW and can afford it, it is unlikely they will buy a Jag.

Why it did not have to come to this.

Each country, and often regions or even cities within those countries, has a special view of how it fits into the greater scheme of things; this comes from a mix of history and present, and depends a lot also on circumstance (quality of the news, presence of influential local people, etc.).

Even in the USA, a structure older and more homogeneous than the EU, and sharing a common language, you will perceive people relating quite differently to their Federal state if you visit the large cities vs rural areas, East/West coasts vs the rest, and a special view from Texas (or Alaska & Hawaii!).

EU and Brexit thoughts

As an Italian citizen, despite over 16 years of life in the UK and a full integration into work, society and schooling system, I was not eligible to vote for the Brexit referendum in June 2016; yet it created a massive disturbance in my life. The posts to come are a simple summary of my thoughts relating to this event and its ongoing effects. I like thinking about things, I read a lot, and often my thoughts re-express something I picked up elsewhere and I won't remember the source - sorry, this is just my blog, not a science paper!